The personal financial situation for U.S. consumers is showing signs of stress, as savings decline and revolving credit increases, both of which will impact recovery/future spending. Inflation continues to impact the shopper mindset, with consumer sentiment still at historically low levels. September retail sales barely kept pace with inflation - the Consumer Price Index increased 8.2% in September with Core CPI increasing 6.6%; transportation and fuel prices continue to drive the overall index. Gas and crude oil prices began to rise again over the last few weeks – driven by the OPEC+ announcement to cut oil production. Heading into the holidays, we have concerns over bloated inventories, rising inflation, the role of bricks and mortar vs. digital, and what the consumer psyche is for how and where they will spend their dollars this holiday season.
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