The Black Friday weekend confirmed what our 2025 Holiday Survey predicted: The holiday weekend’s dominance continues to erode. The Ankura Performance Improvement team completed store visits in more than 15 cities nationwide and observed that the hype that once defined this retail holiday has faded. The overwhelming theme was “safe and stale” — retailers leaned heavily on broad, predictable storewide discounts in the 30–50% range, creating a promotional environment that lacked urgency and excitement. Merchants appeared to play it safe, relying on familiar discount structures rather than differentiating through unique product stories or innovative promotions. Gone were the iconic “must-have” items or theatrical doorbusters that once drove urgency. Stores generally missed the boat leaning into current events and cultural moments, leaving assortments feeling generic, not timely. Instead, shoppers gravitated toward experiences and essentials, signaling a shift in priorities.
Based on our nationwide visits, premium malls and outlet centers seemed to outperform traditional malls and strip centers, underscoring the continued appeal of physical retail as a social hub. Shoppers increasingly prioritized experiences and essentials over discretionary splurges, signaling a fundamental change in what drives engagement. Electronics, despite deep markdowns, underperformed, while beauty and athleisure continued to shine. The result was a holiday weekend that felt like an extension of ongoing seasonal promotions rather than an isolated event. The holiday season is no longer about one day, rather sustained engagement, and retailers who failed to innovate missed the moment.
What We Expected Going Into Black Friday
Our 2025 Holiday Survey revealed diminishing relevance of Black Friday to holiday shoppers, with more than half of respondents indicating the day was “not important” to their holiday plans. Persistent economic pressures — rising interest rates, inflation, and household debt — continued to weigh on sentiment, prompting cautious spending and smaller baskets. The survey showed that while shoppers demanded value, with 85% of shoppers expecting at least 30% off and nearly 20% looking for discounts up to 50%, they also sought convenience and personalization, reinforcing the importance of omnichannel strategies.
Store Visits – Key Findings
The Black Friday weekend confirmed what our 2025 Holiday Survey predicted: The holiday weekend’s dominance continues to erode. Despite this shifting consumer landscape, physical store visits during the extended weekend still yielded critical operational and behavioral insights. Our on-the-ground research revealed that success hinged less on deep, percentage-based discounts and more on offering differentiated experiences and creative value propositions. A deeper dive into the key findings from mall and store observations illuminates the new rules for engaging the modern holiday shopper.
Promotional Fatigue
Flat percentage discounts dominated the landscape, but these offers have become table stakes rather than traffic drivers. Shoppers have grown desensitized to “30–50% off” messaging. The winning strategies were set price points — “All items $20 or less” and “Buy 3 get 4 free” (BOGO) — to drive curiosity and conversion. Merchants who introduced creative pricing strategies and compelling product stories stood out, while retailers relying solely on storewide discounts lagged. Across the board, the absence of urgency — once fueled by limited-time doorbusters — was palpable.
Experience as a Differentiator
Retailers that incorporated experiential elements into their strategy broke through the promotional noise. Holiday activations — free goodie bags for early shoppers, complimentary perks and events, and interactive touches like jewelry-making stations — created buzz and extended dwell time. Food courts and coffee shops were packed, underscoring the mall’s role as a destination for connection as much as commerce.
Category Performance
Beauty continued to outperform, offering sticky price points and gift sets with boosted loyalty points. Footwear also saw healthy engagement, particularly where limited-edition drops and strong BOGO offers were featured. Athleisure maintained its dominance, with comfort-focused fabric and loungewear resonating across specialty stores. In contrast, electronics struggled to convert despite deep inventory and markdowns, and jewelry generally lacked compelling offers to draw traffic.
Shopper Behavior
Economic caution was evident, with many shoppers browsing over buying, and building smaller baskets. At the same time, the social aspect of shopping was alive and well — creating a “barbell effect” where groups of teens and older shoppers dominated high-traffic centers, gravitating toward specialty stores and experiential environments. Dining, expected to be a cutback category, defied predictions, with food courts and premium eateries bustling throughout the weekend.
Operational Observations
Many stores were staffed for peak traffic that never fully materialized, and line-busting technology remained largely absent. Inventory levels were high, and while most locations maintained strong visual standards, gaps and empty endcaps in some areas detracted from the overall experience. Omnichannel integration — critical in today’s retail landscape — was inconsistent, with limited evidence of app-exclusive offers or personalized engagement.
Closing Thoughts
Black Friday reinforced a critical reality for retailers: Price alone no longer drives consumer behavior. Retailers must move beyond predictable discounting and embrace strategies that create excitement and deliver value in new ways. Experiences, personalization, and innovative pricing models are essential to breaking through promotional fatigue. As the season progresses, agility will be key — monitor sell-through daily, adjust promotions dynamically, and lean into moments that make shopping feel special and gift-worthy.
The week and weekend following Black Friday traditionally experience lower traffic, leaving approximately two weeks and two powerful weekends before Christmas. Based on our observations, we anticipate steeper discounts and, hopefully, more creative promotions to clear seasonal inventories in the time remaining.
© Copyright 2025. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of Ankura Consulting Group, LLC., its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals. Ankura is not a law firm and cannot provide legal advice.
